German Study Shows Electric Mobility is Taking Off
Stuttgart, Oestrich-Winkel, 12 July 2011. The electrical mobility could prevail in Germany faster than anticipated. This is the result of a study conducted by the consulting firm Horváth & Partners in collaboration with the Strascheg Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SIIE) and the Automotive Institute for Management (AIM) of the European Business School with companies from the automotive and energy sectors and in related branch has carried out. Accordingly, the experts expect from nearly 250 participating companies with nearly 2 million electric vehicles in 2020, twice as much as by the federal government is planned by that date.
According to industry experts hybrids make up about 8.5% of Germany's 2020 vehicle inventory. With an estimated 2020 vehicle population of about 47.5 million cars, this corresponds to around 4 million vehicles. Current drives (including battery-powered vehicles "range extender" and plug-in hybrids) will follow with about 4.2% (about 2 million vehicles). Hydrogen power will play with just over 1% of the stock rather subordinate role.
"Against the background of the present estimates, it seems realistic that the goals of the federal government by 2020 may be exceeded by twice," said the study leaders Prof. Dr. Ronald Gleich and Dr. Horváth partner Oliver Greiner. Under the National Development Plan for Electric Mobility, the federal government had declared 2009 the target of one million electric cars for the year 2020. Be considered on a purely battery-powered electric vehicles (including "range extender") and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The now estimated value would represent a breakthrough of electric vehicles: If you assume from 2020, a further growth curve of approximately 30% per year - for successful technology breakthroughs not an unusual value - would be in 2025 about 7.5 million pure electric vehicles in stock in 2030 would be every second vehicle, an electric vehicle.
The unexpectedly optimistic forecast that the study's lead back to a number of reasons. "In addition to objective factors, such as the significant reduction in battery prices and the increasingly attractive offer, also plays with regard to the social acceptance of new propulsion technologies play an important role," said Matthias Deeg, E-Mobility expert at Horváth & Partners. According to experts interviewed believe that emotional aspects such as environmental awareness and a higher social status in Germany will provide motorists despite lower range for a rapidly growing acceptance of electric vehicles. "But they seem willing, in a moderate extent, higher purchase prices to be tolerated," adds Christopher Schneider, a specialist from the Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship Strascheg (SIIE). According to the interviewed industry representatives would be in the willingness of the average of 10-15%.
Companies still hesitant
The question of whether they see their own business sufficiently prepared for the new dynamics of market development takes place in the participants a divided response. Just 51% believe their company in terms of market changes with a clear strategy, and only 40% acknowledge when dealing with issues of electric vehicles and new mobility concepts for a high speed.
In relation to the development of necessary business models and their implementation is quite obvious that action. Horváth partner Oliver Greiner: "In the coming years will create opportunities in relation to changes in the value chain, new infrastructure and enhanced services products in the environment of mobility - and across industries. The cards are shuffled again varied. Who now his position is not clearly defined, will be overhauled in the upcoming competition quickly. "
An important issue in this context is the projected skill shortages. When asked to name the greatest structural challenges in terms of alternative propulsion and new mobility concepts with 49% by far the majority of respondents lack of human resources. In contrast, only 21% see lack of financial resources as a problem.
The funding policy of the federal government learns from the study, however, a confirmation. The mid-May resolute focus on the promotion of research and development is also the focus of the interviewed experts from the industry. 77% would be an increase in government subsidies like most in this area - only 25% of sales promotion.
About the Study
The study is one of the largest cross-industry studies on e-Mobility and new mobility concepts, which have been carried out in Germany. The study took place in the period from April to May at a joint study by Horváth & Partners Management Consultants and the Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship Strascheg (SIIE) and the Automotive Management Institute (AIM) of the European Business School. Used was an unstratified random sample from a population of about 3,000 contacts from the value-added sectors, automotive, energy, providers / services. Through an open online survey, a standardized questionnaire was used. Nearly 250 companies participated in the investigation. This represents a response rate of approximately 8%.
